Picking 12th in snake drafts doesn't stink if you look at it the right way. You're guaranteed two of your top-13 players and four of your top-37 players. You will rarely have to debate two players because you can just take two at the same time with back-to-back picks. You can call your friends and file your taxes while you wait between your picks.
Okay, fine, picking 12th is the least desirable spot in a 12-team league. Sorry, that's just how it goes.
And this year it's particularly tricky because there's a consensus of eight wide receivers and three running backs that figure to go in the first round of every PPR draft. That means that the next two players aren't consensus Round 1 guys -- and they're going to be yours. All yours.
The pre-draft homework is simple: Make a top-13 list knowing you will get two of them. Here was mine:
Christian McCaffrey
Ceedee Lamb
Tyreek Hill
Breece Hall
Bijan Robinson
Justin Jefferson
Ja'Marr Chase
Amon-Ra St. Brown
A.J. Brown
Garrett Wilson
Puka Nacua
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jonathan Taylor
My hope was for at least one receiver and one running back make it to me. The best shot of that happening was for someone to take Gibbs with a top-11 pick.
Problem was, this PPR mock required three starting wide receivers, and I drafted with people who love taking receivers early. So in this instance, the nightmare scenario came true when every single receiver I had in my top-13 was off the board when I was up at 12th.
My options were as follows:
Take the next-best two receivers in my rankings, which were Marvin Harrison and Chris Olave.Both would have been particularly early choices.
Take one of those receivers and one running back, which would have meant Harrison and Gibbs.Okay, a better choice in terms of ADP and in creating some balance on my roster, but Harrison was still going to get taken too soon in my mind.
Take the two remaining names on my top-13 list, position be damned.That would mean two running backs in Gibbs and Taylor.
In a former life, I'd be all over this, but I understand how receivers are valued now and can't just take running backs and not expect to pay for it at receiver. But, but, but ... this is a mock, and I wanted to see what would happen if I took two running backs and then took wide receivers with my next four picks. Would I love it? Like it? Hate it?
You tell me what you think. Here's the team from 12th overall:
1.12 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
2.01 Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
3.12 Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
4.01 DJ Moore, WR, CHI
5.12 Calvin Ridley, WR, TEN
6.01 Rashee Rice, WR, KC
7.12 Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN
8.01 Chase Brown, RB, CIN
9.12 Brock Bowers, TE, LV
10.01 Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF
11.12 Pat Freiermuth, TE, PIT
12.01 Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
13.12 Kirk Cousins, QB, ATL
14.01 Ray Davis, RB, BUF
To be completely honest, I am thrilled with the receivers I landed after taking two stud running backs. Cooper Kupp may not have 20-point upside in PPR anymore, but he still figures to be the Rams' top target in the red zone while splitting damn near even with Puka Nacua. A recent interview with Rams beat reporter Jourdan Rodrigue suggested that Kupp will reclaim his old role in the offense, plus he's healthy after pulling through injuries over the past two seasons.
The receiver I mulled the hardest on was Moore. Talent-wise, there's no question he's awesome. I think he can do anything the Bears ask him to do, and I think he has an upgrade at quarterback in Caleb Williams. But I did think about DK Metcalf as an alternative and opted against it. Both receivers are in crowded situations but Moore's the one who's exceeded expectations and could be effective as more than a touchdown-reliant option.
Then I took some chances on Calvin Ridley and Rashee Rice. Like the other receivers, they're both in crowded houses but the value was obviously better. It's starting to feel like Rice won't be suspended to start the year, making him the safest Chiefs wide receiver to draft.
Bottom line: Committing to four wide receivers after taking two stud RBs worked out okay. I don't think I got any massive steals, but I did cover myself with some good players who should be weekly starters as long as they're healthy.
By the way, doing this would be MUCH easier if it's in a league that starts two wide receivers instead of three, or if it's a half-PPR or non-PPR league.
Favorite pick
Projections powered by Sportsline
Brock Bowers TE
LV Las Vegas • #89
Age: 21 • Experience: Rookie
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) | ||||
OVERALL RNK127th | TE RNK12th | PROJ PTS156.7 | SOS24 | ADP45 |
2023 Stats | ||||
REC0 | TAR0 | REYDS0 | TD0 | FPTS/G0 |
For as good of talents Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid were last year, Bowers is better. He landed in an offense that doesn't have a clear No. 2 target-getter, and the quarterbacks in Las Vegas are likely to be ordered to get the ball out quick. When Gardner Minshew did that last year he kept the ball close to the line of scrimmage and peppered his biggest target. Davante Adams will still get his volume, but Bowers isn't in Vegas to block, he's there for mismatches and dynamite YAC plays. He's also versatile -- don't be surprised if he runs for a couple of touchdowns this year.
Pick I might regret
Projections powered by Sportsline
DJ Moore WR
CHI Chicago • #2
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) | ||||
OVERALL RNK48th | WR RNK23rd | PROJ PTS240 | SOS20 | ADP43 |
2023 Stats | ||||
REC96 | TAR136 | REYDS1364 | TD9 | FPTS/G16.9 |
I do worry about a target crunch in Chicago, but I also think the Bears will throw considerably more than they did last year. So the high concentration of targets to Moore is not going to happen (it was 28.5% in 2023), but if Chicago moves from 30.2 attempts per game to 34.2 attempts per game (which was league average in 2023), then Moore would need only a 23.4% target share to match his 136 targets from last year. It's still a high number, but reasonable for a receiver like Moore. I'm OK with him at the 3/4 turn.
Make or break player
Projections powered by Sportsline
Cooper Kupp WR
LAR L.A. Rams • #10
Age: 31 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) | ||||
OVERALL RNK27th | WR RNK16th | PROJ PTS250.1 | SOS22 | ADP101 |
2023 Stats | ||||
REC59 | TAR95 | REYDS737 | TD5 | FPTS/G13.7 |
If Kupp stays on the field there is weekly top-10 receiver potential. The Rams offense improved along the O-line and Matthew Stafford is healthy. Kupp can still get open with his quick feet, solid-yet-deceptive speed and good size. I probably should have considered drafting Demarcus Robinson with my last pick in case Kupp misses time, but I can always target him off waivers.
